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# "quantity"exercise:Price target

Questions 1:

The figure below shows the histogram for the distribution of weekly returns on an index. The median of the returns on the index, if compared to the mean, will most likely be:

A 、smaller.

B、 equal.

C、 greater.

Questions 2:

A technical analyst observes a head and shoulders pattern in a stock she has been following. She notes the following information: Based on this information, her estimate of the price target is closest to:

A、 \$59.50.

B 、\$48.00.

C 、\$44.50.

【analysis】

A is correct. The histogram clearly shows that the return distribution of the index is positively skewed (skewed to the right) and is unimodal (it has one most frequently occurring value). For a positively skewed unimodal distribution, the median is always less than the mean.

B is incorrect. By looking at the histogram, it is clear that the return distribution of the index is positively skewed (skewed to the right) and is unimodal (it has one most frequently occurring value). For a positively skewed unimodal distribution, the median is always less than the mean.

C is incorrect. By looking at the histogram, it is clear that the return distribution of the index is positively skewed (skewed to the right) and is unimodal (it has one most frequently occurring value). For a positively skewed unimodal distribution, the median is always less than the mean.

【analysis】

B is correct. Price target = Neckline − (Head − Neckline). In this example, Price target = \$65.75 − (\$83.50 − \$65.75) = \$65.75 – \$17.75 = \$48.00.

A is incorrect because 59.50 = Neckline – (Shoulder – Neckline) = 65.75 – (72 – 65.75).

C is incorrect because 44.50 = Current Price – (Head – Current Price) = 64 – (83.50 – 64).

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